Re: College Football Week 8
I want to be clear
I'm not implying Illinois is the better team. I didn't think it beforehand and don't think it now. I bet on Michigan for the game and the Michigan o25 points before the game and stick to that opinion now. The gap is less than 10 points IMO...far less....like 2-3 points in Champaign or 5.5 to 6 on a nuetral field.
talking about 'breaks' is a weird subject
I mean, is Henne being out a break or is it something Illinois earned by pounding on him?
BTW--Michigan was clearly better with Henne in the game if anyone doubted
Mallett has a ton of upside, but it's near impossible for a true freshman to be better than a 4 year competent starter
Hell, one difference in this game was Henne's ability to do something he couldn't in his younger years, go down the progression chart.
I am upset that it appears that Michigan once again got the better of official judgment calls. I don't think they determined the outcome. It just sucks to know going into a game that it's going to be a factor.
Is it a break or something else when Reda misses a very makeable FG? Is it a break that Illinois muffs a punt? Is it a break that the back-up QB has problems with the center exchange?
Breaks are funny.
Actually, I believe the teams are/were pretty close to even themselves (with Hart out, with him in-it's about 1.5 in the Wolverines favor), but that the coaching (yes Lloyd Carr even) was the difference between the two.
Carr added a shotgun formation that kind of looked like a flexbone that I've never seen Michigan use before. It allowed for sophisticated blocking schemes to hold down the Illini rush, which was surprisingly having a good amount of success v the Michigan o-line. The formation also allowed for more Michigan athletes to get out in pass routes against an Illini defense that lacks speed and athleticism in pass coverage. Illinois doesn't have the depth in place yet. It's still an older school hard-hitting defense that can be attacked with receptions over the middle as LBs and safeties cannot keep up. Manningham's 2 catches on Vontae Davis early in the second were a surprise however as Vontae shuts nearly everyone down. The trick play by Carr was also excellent.
On the other hand, Zook got too conservative when Illinois opened a lead up. Should've let Juice throw the ball some more when Michigan had to be concerned about both the run and pass. Juice wasn't looking that bad. Also, just a terrible bunch formation by Illinois. They consistently went with Lenti (#82) as the one wideout when they went 2 TEs in the I-formation. Lenti isn't a threat at all and Michigan could leave a corner on an island against him and put 10 men in the box. If Zook/Locksley put Benn out there as the one receiver, Michigan's safeties would at least have to pay attention and would be a step slower in stopping run plays....really bothersome that Zook cannot see that and correct Locksley's personnel given Zook's defensive minded background. Even if a defense can put a 90% likelihood on an Illinois run through the middle out of that formation, the 10% they try something else would be somewhat scary with Benn working by himself on a corner. With Lenti, it was a 10 man box and a few less rush yards.
Also, the Illini coaches have to get McGee to pitch the ball off sometimes. He keeps it nearly everytime and it really hurt in the last game. On the 3rd and 4 where McGee got 2 and took the huge hit, Mendenhall had an 80%+ chance of getting the first if McGee pitches to him. McGee needs to recognize how good Mendenhall is and error towards giving Mendenhall the ball too much rather than the other way around.
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