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Old 11-27-2007, 11:36 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - KK stack sizes

Preflop is good -- you have the best hand and you want the money in the middle as quickly as possible.

The flop is a shriveler -- you have to cringe every time you see an ace on the flop when you hold them cowboys. Still, the pot is hefty and you simply MUST take a stab at it. I agree with previous posters -- a smaller bet is perfectly acceptable. I usually drop 2/3rds-pot as my c-bet size in these situations, though I know many SSNLers who make it half-pot. Pick your poison; I think at uNL you need a slightly bigger bet to have the folding equity you want. I'd say somewhere in the $5-$6 range would be perfect.

Villain pushes. That's quite curious, don't you think? Possibilities are a bluff, a semibluff, or a monster.

A bluff is way too scary for a TAG to attempt here -- you three-bet preflop, after all, and there's an ace on the board, and you came out swinging. Villain has to know that he's quite shallow relative to the pot, so he has little folding equity. He knows this but he pushes anyways -- he's not looking for a fold, so he's not bluffing.

What about a semibluff? The board has a flush draw and a straight draw, after all. But how realistic are those hands in this situation? Your opponent is aggressive enough that raising suited connectors is certainly possible for him from late position; however, he then called a sizeable three-bet. He's no maniac -- he's not calling with suited connectors weak enough to be [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. After all, you see the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the board and the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in your hand; I can't imagine villain frequently calls with QJs or lower in this situation, and if he does you should DEFINITELY note it and adjust your three-betting range.

So what does that leave us? Monsters. AA slowplayed is always possible, though villain seems aggressive enough to fight harder with that preflop. AK is always a possibility, and 55/44 are VERY possible.

Villain just seems to TAGish to make a move in this situation, and his range is EXTREMELY skewed towards hands that blow you out of the water. While it's true that your pot odds are good, you have extremely little pot equity, since I think you've got about an 8% chance of winning this hand (two outs twice).

Swear and fold.
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