[Stumpy]

MLG,
Does that mean you agree he doesn't have a flush often (based on tells), or just with that qualifier it doesn't sound terrible?

Ansky,
I would fold, but was mostly arguing that calling seemed like the worst option.

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If calling is reasonable, raising seems far better. If raising is suspect, then I think you need to fold.
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Well, this is pretty randomly thought up.

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Maybe it wasn't explained well, but given the bluff% I think he needs (from below) to call, and adding a good % of his range that would fold to a c/r, I think it is better than calling. This was before you said you don't think he bets anything less than 2 pair.


What was his stack size in this hand?
And can you give your river plan?
Seems like it has to be check/fold, but we haven't agreed yet. Certainly about 1/3rd of the deck is.


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I was fairly sure hed check behind bigger jacks on the turn, and almost as sure that hed check any <2pr hand.

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Given that it was pretty obv I had a marginal hand

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If it's pretty obvious you have a marginal hand (that could contain a crappy spade) why wouldn't he bet big if he didn't have the flush, even with his weaker hands? Would you agree random live players tend to overprotect their hands, and a decent percentage do stupid things like bet big when a flush hits so that if they're raised they know they can fold?

Are you including sets, straights, two pair in his betting range, or just flushes?


What % of the time do you think he has nothing, and what % does he bet the river with his nothing?
He's got to be bluffing over 30% of the time just to give you immediate odds to call.

I stoved all unpaired hands weaker than A9o, and they're 17.5% to win against you.
So if he just checked behind on every river, he'd have to bluff the turn at least 36.5% of the time.

If he bluffs the river 25% of the time (25% of his turn bluff %) then you need him to be FOS 50% of the time to break even.

I said he wouldn't bluff the river much, but if you're making him a guy who bluffs into 4 people > 50% of the time on the flop and then again on almost the worst turn, I think you need to assume he'll continue sometimes.