Re: Gin
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First of all, you stated that the average point value of a card in gin is 7. Not to split hairs, but it is actually 6.54. the point average of the sample hand is 5.8 because there are 11 cards in the hand.
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Of course, last time I try even basic maths while watching tv!
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Since reducing deadwood is not the primary concern at this point unless your opponent has a terrible hand,
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A couple of the players I play with would discard a K here to reduce deadwood if it was a useless card
I don't think I'd go as deep as you do in the rest of the post that early in the game, One of my poker weaknesses is to put people on a draw at PLO and then discover they are slowplaying trips v my two pair, I think I'd have the same problem here. I would most likely assume he has a higher average than me and then narrow down his holding depending on the play from there. Earlier on in the hand I find knowing my opponent to be more important, I would apply the math later when I'm deciding to go our or play for gin etc. This may be a consequence of only playing with a limited number of opponents.
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