[armynixon]

I was discussing this theoretical hand with a friend of mine. It is early in the game, and your opponent has just laid down a K, giving you three Ks. Your hand now consists of the following: Ad 2c 3h 4s 5c 5d 7c 7d Ks Kh Kd, so you must discard one. What is the best discard?
First of all, It can't be the A23 or 4, because they create a great four card spread for a quick knock early in the game. Of course it isn't the kings either, so it is either one of the 5s or 7s. This is where the confusion lies. Does it even matter which card you lay down? Decreasing deadwood at this point in the game shouldnt be a primary concern. Furthermore, sevens are the most valuable card in gin because of their extension value or ability to block off other runs when in a set. On the other hand, your opponent is unlikely to give up a 7 for the same reason. Unless your opponent is a highly defensive player, he likely wont give up a five at this point either. He/She likely holds very high cards (based on your hand and the rule of fourteen) and would be throwing off supefluos high cards in an attempt to decrease deadwood and use them as salesmen. I think that in the end the best card to throw town is the 5c. Your opponent is unlikely to pick it up (you hold the 2c and 7 c as well as another 5) and you open up the middle zone to discards.
What are your thoughts here? Am I missing some angles here? Am I mistaken?