Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
:grunch:
Ok, here we go:
1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.
2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.
3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.
4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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