[Post-Oak]

Well, a couple of things have already changed since I wrote that.

Clemens has been scratched, and the terrible Kei Igawa is replacing him tonight. Not only is Igawa brutal, but the D-Rays are better against lefties.

On ESPN, the anchor said that both Manny and Youkilis should play tonight (although the graphic said "could").

I also see that BP does put a note on one of their projections (the "regular one") about fixing the tie problem. The 90% they have for the Bosox is just a result of their terrible projections then.

Coolstandings has the Red Sox as 80.2%. You can also use Coolstandings to judge what would happen if every game is a coinflip, and it comes out to 80.6%. I see you did the math, but in the future you can go to the coolstanding site and use the "dumb" projections.

Here are the pitching matchups (definitely subject to change due to late season tinkering):

Red Sox

Gaudin-Schilling
Blanton-Lester
Baker-Beckett
Slowey-Matsuzaka
Silva-Wakefield
Garza-Schilling


Yankees

Igawa-Hammel
Wang-Howell
Hughes-Kazmir
Mussina-Liz or Leciester
Pettie-Cabrera
Clemens?-Burres

The Yankees face 4 guys who have no business being in the major leagues. They also face the thoroughly mediocre Daniel Cabrera. They do get Kazmir though, and he of course is very good.

Hammel 5.88 ERA, 1.61 WHIP
Howell 6.80, 1.75
Kazmir 3.54, 1.41
Liz 9.72, 2.34; Leicester 6.51, 1.37
Cabrera 5.51, 1.52
Burres 5.27, 1.63

The Red Sox do miss Johan Santana.

Gaudin 4.52, 1.54
Blanton 3.84, 1.18
Baker 4.29, 1.34
Slowey 4.57, 1.41
Silva 4.40, 1.33
Garza 3.72, 1.51

Available lines:

Gaudin @ Schilling -218
Blanton @ Lester -170

Igawa -158 @ Hammel (was -210ish with Clemens)

If you liked Boston before, you should like them even more with Igawa going tonight. WSEX has Bosox at -455. I am not gonna bet it because I think that is about right.

Hopefully the Yankees will lose tonight, the Red Sox will win, and the Yankees will start to prepare for the playoffs as the Wild Card entrant. That could mean resting regulars and keeping some SPs on relatively low pitch counts (especially Clemens if they want him to pitch once before the playoffs).

I am a Yankee fan, but I have been betting on the Red Sox to win the AL East throughout the season (the odds were too enticing). I haven't even been able to enjoy this latest Red Sox choke job. I hope they can hang on.