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You're missing the point.


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The point is that a 2 game lead is very difficult to overcome with only 6 games left in the season. If every game from here on out was a coinflip, there would be 3302 combinations that would give the division to the Red Sox and 794 combinations that would give it to the Yankees. The fact that the games aren't coinflips and that the Red Sox and Yankees will each be around 60-65% in each remaining game makes it even more likely that the groupings will be closer, and gives you the numbers reflected in Baseball Prospectus.


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It seems like it is you who is missing the point. The Red Sox do not have a 2 game lead. If the teams end in a tie, the Yankees win the division.

If each remaining game were a coin flip, then Boston would win the division 80.6% of the time.

Especially with Manny and Youklis out, I wouldn't touch Boston at -450.

I'm not sure where you get the info that BP has fixed their Monte Carlo simulator. I can't find where it says this, and their PECOTA Monte Carlo is so far off that I don't see how this is possible.

A fair price for the Red Sox is somewhere between -400 and -450. Of course you are gonna see the Red Sox at -500 (or worse) - sportsbooks are not trying to offer +EV or even EV neutral bets. Just because you see -500, doesn't mean -450 is +EV.