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Old 08-28-2007, 11:28 AM
wallenborn wallenborn is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 478
Default Re: PNL Study Group Day 6: Position/Hand Reading/FIP

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In the micros I've found hand reading to be pretty difficult. If you are table selecting well you will be in a lot of pots with players who will play almost any two and call down with some very questionable cards.

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There are a few things working in your favour, though. Remember Bayes' Theorem: you need estimates on 1. your opponents' initial distribution (what hands they play) and 2. their conditional probabilities (how they play them). If the latter information is precise and accurate, i.e. if you opponent is a straightforward player, then usually it doesn't matter much whether you get 1. right.

Fortunately, most players in the micros are either straightforward or crazy (which is actually straightforward in a weird way). So you're not making a big mistake assuming the prior distribution to be uniform (they play any two cards), and then just listen to what they tell you with their actions.

Furthermore, if they call you down with a lot of bad hands: fine! That means you'll make money against them by winning more pots than losing. now all you have to do is make sure the pots you lose are not substantially bigger on average than the pots you win. So use pot control techniques to keep your losing pots from getting too big, and you're there.
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