Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
i don't have time to do the math or go super in depth, but here's my quick analysis:
it's alright just assume that a bad player's minraising range includes all pairs, some meh Q + K's, and raggedy A's, as well as some bigger A's and K's. the real mistake of your hand, however, is in your calculation of his 3b calling range. when he calls the minraise, you have to tighten some of the BAD hands out of there as well as the good hands (and i'm kind of wary to remove KK and AA, because bad players at 25nl LOVE to slowplay big hands).
also, just because you have a certain amount of equity against a villain, doesn't mean you should always cbet - especially when OOP vs. a bad player. if you think he's going to shove/call light on a wet board like this, then by all means go ahead and bet/call. but i don't think you have enough information to make that decision.
also, your range for villains shove is way too wide. i think it's a marginal call once you get shipped, but no way do you have 40% equity on that board.
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