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Old 10-22-2007, 02:29 PM
n.s. n.s. is offline
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Default Re: Button steal checkup

I think you are cooked here most of the time, but you have to call the flop check-raise since you are getting 8:1 with a likely 5-outer plus a BDFD.

If the turn is a blank, I think it's close between calling and folding. I'd just call a diamond turn, and raise if we make trips/two pair. I think semi-bluffing a diamond turn is a mistake since it'd be pretty obvious what we are doing, and SB is only going to fold hands that we beat already (I'm seriously discounting the chance that he has JJ-KK since he didn't 3-bet PF).

If we call a blank turn, I think it's time to fold to a bet on the river - I have a hard time seeing SB firing three barrels against us on this board.

SB's flat-call PF means he's more likely to have a big A rather than a PP, since he'd want to try and get BB out with most PPs. He should know that your range is heavily weighted towards any A when you make the steal raise, just based on combinations alone.
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