Re: chk
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There probably were a few people who were short this stock because they knew better than the market what those probabilities were. If they did it was probably not public information, which is what the stock reflects.
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I don't think there is any evidence of non-public information in this. Groty gave the most likely explanation for the price action. The other is simply that investors were disappointed in the size or terms of the offering.
And no, the market isn't perfectly efficient. There aren't many people left in the world who believe that.
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"Observing correctly that the market was frequently efficient, [they] went on to conclude incorrectly that it was always efficient. The difference between these propositions is night and day."
Warren Buffett
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