[rando]

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Rando, don't get me wrong I woulda saved about $120 playing it that way...BUT the fact that he had that hand and like I said my read was that he was, why the hell not try to bust his sorry ass?? I mean if you can put your opponent on AAxxcc (and he actually had AAxx with trip clubs) then shouldn't you be willing to jam as a 65:35 (aroundabouts) favorite and not let him get there for cheap???

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Well, there is no argument against your math, of course. Anecdotally, I have been in this spot so many times and I almost always feel a lot better jamming safe turns rather than the flop. I find too many people who are willing to call a jam with two cards to come, and if you're about 80% to get a safe turn, I like the insurance that comes with waiting one street. If I'm 2:1 and can take a roughly 3 or 4:1 chance to see one safe card then jam it to better odds, I just like the way it feels and it does manage variance better than a straight math play on the technically correct street. Hope that makes sense. It seems to me like variance against this guy is like sand in the vaseline.