I'll echo the sentiments about opportunity costs. I'm kinda bummed at the "six-month clause." That for something that it will have taken me 11.9 months to accomplish I need to repeat in about 4.5 months to maintain (a week in Carib, a week in Monaco & June starts the WSOP). It's my responsibility to read the fine print of course, but it doesn't follow logically from the task, and Stars has always been pretty reliable wrt fairness. And it seems like an odd twist on their twenty best customers out of hundreds of thousands. If I had wanted to work...
The big unknown for me (and others of my ilk, I imagine) is 'how much do I want to play poker online in 2008?' Today and tonight the SNGs were atrocious, often with pro:not-terrible-nonpro ratios of 7:2 in even the 100s. And I can see it getting worse for two reasons: 1) even less average-joe's playing the high-stakes SNGs, and 2) lower-limit players accumulating the funds (and the skills) to start challenging the present ruling class.
This in contrast to the two times I visited the real world to play poker. The one time I visited the Commerce[1][2], there were several games 200-400 and higher where the ratio was 3 pros: 6 amateurs. And at the WSOP, I frequently found myself in 1k 1-tables with 9 hosers[3]. There's still a lot of money in poker; I just don't see it making it's way online so much. If we could turn back the clock to 2004, the SNE would be like a free 100k on top of everything else, but alas we can't.
And of course in 2004, the casinos didn't need these incentives to get players just as the pros didn't need them to show up. Hat's off to Stars for recognizing that there is a symbiotic relationship between the pro(p)s and the room, and doing something to foster that relationship.
This may just be the low tide for online poker, or it could be the leading edge of a continued downward trend. I'm sure the long-term will be good (if not 2004 good), but we may have to slog through a local minimum for a year or two longer. And let's say the environment changes and the American casinos complete their master rent-seeking plan and get in the game. If all the fish show up at Harrahs-BillFrist'sRoom.com, that'll be the end of my trying to renew SNE status on Stars. I love Stars and their professionalism and their customer service, but it will take a lot more than 5xFPP and a shoulder rub from Lee to stay around for a 5% ROI when there is a 15% ROI next door down.
And eventually that'll be the case anyway, right? What if there had been an SNE equivalent on Planet in 99? Paradise in 00? Party in 03? Eventually some year would have come where you would've abandoned the status and gone where the games are, and whatever year that was, the previous year's effort would've been worth a lot less than what you thought it was worth on Jan 1 prior. Stars looks like it'll be #1 forever, but that's the survivor bias talking.
For this year, I'm happy. It actually got me off my ass and working hard. Well, maybe 900 hours for the year hard, but still that's probably more than I had in a while. I wish I'd played 15,000 SNGs in 2004 instead, but it is what it is.
[1]
http://walterzuey.livejournal.com/99502.html
[2]
http://walterzuey.livejournal.com/99165.html
[3]
http://walterzuey.livejournal.com/95316.html