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Old 11-16-2006, 05:05 PM
aejones aejones is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: freestyling at final tables
Posts: 5,780
Default Re: I think I know the answer, do you?

I think this is a call. At the time, I was 6 tabling and with the fast tables on Stars I wasn't able to think through it enough. But it seemed a little fishy. I tanked and folded. I asked him in the chat "why weren't you afraid of spades?"

Here's my thing. I beat all made hands < straights, obviously we can get that out of the way immediatley. Now, he limped and called a raise. His mostlikely holdings are small pocket pairs, AXs, and two face cards. He can call my flop bet with any T, including QT. On the turn, his bet size is pretty weak. I would expect him to put more money in the pot with QT for sure, and even protect any ten. There is no doubt imo that my most likely holding on the turn was two spades. I can have AQ-AT suited in spades here after check calling. So why isn't he afraid of the river spade? I think his bet sizing leads me to believe that he's got air here- I can't see a naked ten trying to get value this way, and I don't think he flopped the nuts because I think he'd raise me on this flop.

I think I can call here profitably.
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