Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
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his range is fl draw set jj,tt here he can have jj,tt right? i was thinking that he should be dbl barreling every single hand in his range fl draw because he has good fold EQ and i think he would dbl barrel jj,tt on any non club turn for value vs ur possible fl draw and i think a good cash game player will realize that he can get a good player ( u said he knows u) off an overpair here as a bluff so he can bet it works 2 ways vs ur range. so i think the turn is a lot harder of a decision. if he bets around half pot i think ur getting to good of odds vs his range, if he bets the pot i think its a call because its more likely he'll play the 2 hands u beat like that than a set, if he bets 2/3 i think its a close decision because hes very like to make that bet with all 3 hands making a set a lil more likely then both hands u beat combined imo it seems like at best slightly ev so i fold and wait for much better spots, to a small bet like the 1 he did its a fold looks like an obv set. so i think i call flop and play turn like this and fold to river bet. what do i know though : )
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I'd include 77-99 and possibly 44 in the range as well. I'm not sure the small bet here is huge strength, it could also be a weak second barrel of someone who doesn't want to go all the way with the hand. I think we're ahead of a significant chunk of his range, and I don't think we'll see a 3rd barrel from a hand we can beat, but we have to go pretty deep into our stacks to find out. If the flush comes on the river, and he checks, I think we can rep the flush and take away the pot. I think calling the turn is a high risk/high reward play I'd make some of the time, there's nothing wrong with folding.
This is a tough spot, one that happens all the time. This reminds me of a hand I played in the 5K 6-handed event at the WSOP. I called a raise in the BB with some 1 gapped suited connector. I flopped a pair, flush draw, and inside straight draw. I C/R'd the flop for 3X his c-bet, got called. Bet turn for about 2X previous bet, got called. 3 barreled river for 2X previous bet, guy thought forever and called with QQ, which was an overpair. I missed my 17 outs twice. I wish I had been playing against you guys instead. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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