View Single Post
  #4  
Old 09-26-2007, 07:19 AM
HoneyBadger HoneyBadger is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Amsterdam
Posts: 2,585
Default Re: quiz number 20 From Stox book

[ QUOTE ]
I realize that the book is geared to much higher stakes, than I play....so i was wondering if you were playing low stakes if the answer would be different.

You have QS6s and open raise from the button, loose passive in the big blind calls.

Flop comes 8d7s2d,you bet, bb calls. Turn is kh, you bet bb calls. River is Ac. Stox advocates betting the river, to get the BB to fold a better hand (only needs to fold 16% of time to be profitable). At the stakes I play, a loose passive will almost never fold a better hand on the river for one bet. If they have a pair they are calling down for one bet. Is this the proper play against a player who let's say folds to river bet 30% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the pot is 5 BB at that point (disregard the half SB for rake) so you get 5:1 on your bluff. 1/(5+1) = 0.1667. that's where the 16% comes from. So assuming if he calls, or both check, you're always beat, he has to call less often than 84% of the time. Therefore, if your passive players calls "only" 70% of the time it's still profitable. This disregards the times both of you check and you win queen high, which would be rare (quite common, as there's an A and K sorry I missed that). Also, where did you get the 30% figure from? Perhaps after calling both the flop and the turn, this passive player will almost certainly have a pair and folds the river only 10% of the time. In that case it's not profitable.
Reply With Quote