[karlwig]

[ QUOTE ]
i go with school of thought that says i dont fold any set (given no made draws), if i go broke then i go broke. about 99.999% of your opponents couldnt make that laydown and it really dosent affect your winrate in my opinion. its such a tough decision that its just better to gamble and go with it. plus hitting a long shot 1 outer is fun [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

so my calculations go like this

to be dealt a pair - 6% or 17-1
flop a set when dealt a pair - 12%

so (1/17)*0.12 = 0.007
or ~140-1

so i just square this 140-1 to get some really small probability of 19600-1

so about every 20k hands dealt assuming every pocket pair sees the flop. notice this is independent of table size (6 handed, full ring...etc). if you want the frequency of how often this is dealt at a table per say of each shuffle and deal, just divide by players getting cards.

i think i did that right. any thing i did wrong?

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not if everyone plays every hand. but they don't. and when atight player is seeing the flop, the odds of him having a pair is of course better than 17-1.

but i think the math would be right if you don't count for those practical difficulties... it seems very low though, this has happened to me online more than 3 times, and i have played under 5K hands...

IT'S RIGGED!!omg