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Old 12-01-2007, 11:58 AM
wacki wacki is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: reading 1K climate journals
Posts: 10,708
Default Re: Of Climate Models and Hurricane Predictions

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A non answer answer to a perfectly legitimate and reasonable question. Why?

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What have I not answered? Whether the models are unproven or not? Scientists don't even consider the theory of friction or gravity "proved". When behaving accurately they only express it in of the weight of evidence. And in the climate change scenario many top experts believe "all indicators" are pointing towards anthropogenic global warming and there are a TON of indicators.

As the models my position is limited to these statements:
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*Climate models aren't made to model hurricanes yet their predictive ability is better than traditional statistical forcasts.
*The climate change skeptics (e.g. Bill Gray) are the bottom of the barrel when it comes to predicting hurricanes.
*Climate model coupled forecasting is the best tool we have for predicting hurricanes.
*Climate model coupled forecasting methods correctly predicted hurricanes in areas where Bill Gray thought was "impossible".
*The predictions that beat the old-school methods were made at course resolution (>200km) and current models have nearly double the resolution at ~125 km.
*Many top modeling experts believe a resolution of 45km is needed to successfully simulate intensity and tracks. Despite this, 200km resoltion was enough to beat old-school predictive methods.

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#Do you agree or disagree these statements are accurate. It's a simple question that deserves a simple answer.

And then we still have these:
# If this post was inspired by some resource such as a think tank or blog please share it with us.
# Please email NOAA (or find a hard and specific link) and prove me wrong about their forecast methodology or admit you are wrong.
# Please find one single Ph.D. level climate change skeptic posted in this forum that I've not picked apart their arguments with supporting evidence from refereed journals and/or technical data. If you can't, please apologize for making a false accusation.

These aren't difficult requests. In the name of fairness and civility please oblige. I'm happy to answer any of your questions.
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