[Monster207]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is flawed thinking. You can't base your equity on his current range, you have to base it on the range he will call your 3bet with. If he only calls 3-bets with AA, then you should never 3bet for value, even though you have 61% equity vs his raising range.

[/ QUOTE ]

He tightens villains range once he smooth calls the 3bet.. throughout the entire rest of the post he continually tightens the range of villain and bases his equity on the range relative to the newest information. You can disagree with the ranges he assigned to villain but its tough to say he is basing his equity on his initial raising range.... cause he clearly isn't.


When villain smooth calls, I think it is safe to eliminate KK/AA from his range, as a bad villain would probably just shove. So lets tighten his range slightly to 22-QQ,K10+, and A8+. Against this range, our 10s still have 61% equity after the flop:

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
59.55% 1.14% 60.69% ( TcTs )
38.17% 1.14% 39.31% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )