Re: 25-50 hand vs Diablo
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yea, exactly. What I also ment by it is TT doesnt fare great vs the overpair range, although getting the price he is, he doesnt need to beat "half" the range, just a little more then a third of it. It's pretty close either way.
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i don't think it's close at all. i haven't logged that many hands with diablo, and they were at full ring, so i suppose he could have a wider range here given this hand was at 6-max, but i have very seldom seen him stick his stack in without the goods. if he doesn't have JJ+ here, he has at least Ahxh. to call this you'd have to be hoping (praying) that diablo would do this with 99/88 or overcards without a flush draw, and he simply won't be on those hands often enough.
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If we boil it down to 88, 99, [TT], JJ, QQ, KK, AA, it's close because we're a 2:1 dog behind getting about that price. Throw in 1 combo of a split where a call is correct (due to overlay) and voila, it's very close. Thats my gorrila math.
if you DO throw in a semibluff, it swings it even more to a call, as we're obviously correct in calling getting 2:1 when we're 2:1 + ahead. :P
Of course, if you now say "oh, but diablo wouldnt move in there with 88 or 99", (and I dont think that's true, one overpair vs strassa is closely related to the other, the only equity gap being an over vs a small op not being live vs a big overpair in the event of a semibluff) then it swings to a fold.
thats how I believe its close either way. Basically, if I folded, I'd never let diablo know I was that strong, and if I called (which I would) I would let him know that I would "never" fold that there (whether thats true or not - in fact, if in the future he knows I would never lay down a small overpair, it makes my decisions easier in the future, so that statement becomes false)
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