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Old 11-09-2007, 01:16 AM
Adrian20XX Adrian20XX is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 172
Default Re: can someone help me with the math behind pp\'s preflop?

[ QUOTE ]
thanks, i checked, it out, really good.

but then to check to make sure i understand the formula correct:

6 players, 1000 stacks.

hero raises to $35, villain repops to $105. including $15 in blinds, the pot is $155.

$155 + $965 left in your stack is $1120.

Assuming the divisor of 9.5, $1120/9.5 is $118. That means that in this scenario, you would be willing to call $118 total, or $118 in addition to the $35 you've already committed?

[/ QUOTE ]

The $35 that you've already put in the pot now does not belong to you any more. It does not matter if the $155 pot was made by limpers, or your raise. So, if you now put more than 118 on the pot voluntarily, you will definitively will have EV-.

But this as I explained, does not contemplate neither straigth draws, flushes, or as someone pointed overcards when he for example has KK, you have 77, and the flop comes A72 rainbow, so he gets away without being stacked.

That's why I think that with 15 or 20 times instead of 9.5 you can have a very interesting EV+.

I'd love to see pzhon's links to the full calculations made.

And I see a few problems that will still probably there.

The number of overcards will still be afected by your opponent's pocket pair's range (for example if his range is QQ+ or KK+), and as his hand range for pocket pairs gets more open, you will need bigger stacks to compensate the bigger probablity of overcards that will get him away cheap.

When you have a flush draw, even if you put him on AA, you will not be able to put him on AsA, it will be unpossible to put him pre-flop in AsA or AA without As.

The straights can have problems, when you have 77 and he flop comes 89T, if he has QQ he steals from you the Js for the straight and leaves you with 6 outs instead of 10, but against AA you have 10 outs on the flop.

Regards ...
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