[greggg230]

More or less a cooler. When you both draw 3 and you wind up with a full house, there's not really any shame in getting stacked.

That said, it might still be correct to fold here. I'd probably call and expect to lose most of the time. Just for fun, let's do the math:

Let's say he'll play a big set (KKK,AAA) like this 20% of the time and a full house or better 100% of the time.

He's 11 times more likely to have a set than a full house here (11.43% v. 1.02%, ignoring dead cards). Assuming he's limping with 99+, that means he'll push with 2/5 of those sets (not with 999,TTT,QQQ - JJJ is impossible due to dead cards).

Of the 825 possible full houses he drew, you beat 45 (1 way to draw 222, 4 ways to draw 333, 4 ways to draw 444 - times 5 for the various pairs he started with).

All told, and discounting the trips, there are 1792 (742 trips + 825 full houses + 225 quads) hands he would push here with.

After he goes all-in, there is $22.50 in the pot, and you have to call $12.05.

EV = (742/1792)(22.50) + (45/1792)(22.50) + (780/1792)(-12.05) + (225/1792)(-12.05) = $9.32 + $0.57 - $5.24 - $1.51 = $3.14

Assuming I did all these calculations correctly, and if all the assumptions I made are correct, calling here shows a profit