[DcifrThs]

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my friend is a copper trader, i can ask him to jot down a few key points. but from our pub discussions, on a daily basis a lot has to do with if there are strikes/political leader quotes/mines opening or closing/weather problem in a producers area.

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i'd greatly appreciate a note from him. i'm sure he has to know about this hedge fund in london thing.

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i remember one time last spring, he was saying that it was so typical that on the day that some US important bank guy made a speech that should of increased the price of copper, instead it fell becuase of workers going on strike in some mine in a small country in africa.

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all the more reason to probe for interesting stuff [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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next time i email him ill ask him to put down a few things.

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thanks.

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here's a lot more going on in the world than what's going on in The US these days.

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fwiw, i dont think he's ever mentioned how the demand in the US affects copper long term, only ever how china affects it.

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well china certainly takes the overall cake. i'm still sure though that a continuing US construction decline (which i don't think has near bottomed) would pare gains in copper.

but that is only 1 piece. as i mentioned before, real estate prices the (developed) world over are reaching fairly outlandish levels. the US is 1 market, true. but if the globe suffers a housing downturn (or some 15-25% of global GDP is subject to the downturn), copper couldn't be supported at current levels by hedge funds and demands from the developing world (the latter of which would also likely fall since the developing world is earning tons exporting to the developed world and lower deamnd would reduce exports and also likely reduce construction expansion from current levels also hampering the copper market if/when that happens)

just some thoughts as i thought the copper market looks like an interesting niche right now from those reports.

one way i would express this as a trade would be through one or many diff bets (relative value trades) along the copper curve. the general method being long spot copper short copper futures (on varying points to different degrees)

Barron