[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
let's say that the BB will call you with the top 15% of hands according to Pokerstove.
... since you will be called only 15% of the time, the other 85% percent of the time you simply take his BB and whatever antes are out there.


[/ QUOTE ]
One of the points I made, in the discussion of "The Myth of Suited Connectors" and here, is that when your opponent calls with his top 15%, you get called less than 15% of the time when you have A7o, and more than 15% of the time when you push with 98o.

Since we were comparing A7o with 98o elsewhere in this thread, I'll analyze those, although it only has a tiny effect on the numebr of combinations, that there are 2 A7s combinations when you have A7o instead of 3 when you have A7s.

I'll use the PokerStove top 15.1% range, which is
77+ (48),
A7s+ (28),
K9s+ (16),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (48),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That totals 200 out of 1326, or 15.1%.

When you have A7o,
77+ (42),
A7s+ (20),
K9s+ (16),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (36),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That totals 174 out of 1225, or 14.2%.

When you have 98o,
77+ (42),
A7s+ (26),
K9s+ (15),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (48),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That is 191 out of 1225, 15.6%.

So, in this case having A7o blocks about 9% of the calls you would get holding 98o.

Let's suppose you open-push from the SB with 10 big blinds against someone who covers you and who (mistakenly) uses this range to call in the BB. As a baseline, I'll use folding, so winning the blinds gains 1.5 BB, and having x% equity after getting called is worth -9.5BB + x% * 20 BB.

A7o is uncalled 85.8% of the time, and has 39.99% equity 14.2% of the time. That averages a gain of 1.07 BB. You get back your small blind and 57% of the big blind. You get knocked out 8.2% of the time when you push.

98o is uncalled 84.4% of the time, and has 32.45% equity 15.6% of the time. That averages a gain of 0.796 BB. You get back your small blind and 30% of the big blind. You get knocked out 10.5% of the time when you push.

Against someone who will fold that often, both hands are clear pushes, but you should much prefer having A7o.

Will this stop people from favoring 98o over A7o? No. Fools will defend to the death something they heard someone say in a bar once or that some celebrity babbled when a mathematician explains why it isn't so. Some people insist JTs is better than AA--look at how many more outs it has--even though AA doesn't need outs, and is about 10 times as profitable.