Re: Prop bet thread
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Assani - thanks for your input.
15 FT attempts a minute feels on the high side when you factor in small rest breaks or slow-downs over the half hour (I think he'd need to at points during the half hour). So let's say 13 and at 70% makes (I agree with you, my initial 80% is way too high, I could actually see due to fatigue it being less than 70%) it's around 273 made for the half-hour. At 60% level it's 234.
I still feel pretty comfortable with an even money line of ~240 - I'll post results after it goes down, will be interesting to see how it turns out.
-Al
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<--- owned
He ended up 375 for 475 (79%). Pretty sick performance, imo. His percentage and shot attempts actually peaked in the last 10 minutes (went 139 for 167 at 83%). Fatigue was absolutely not an issue. At each 10 minute mark he took about a 20 second break, then got right back into it.
For the 30 minutes, this is roughly a shot every 4 seconds, or 16 attempts per minute. When he was in a rhythm, knocking them down, he'd get off a shot every 2-3 seconds. He never took a jump shot, always a traditional free throw, legs planted.
Overall very efficient performance - luckily I hedged some of my bets and actually ended up... but I was way off in my initial estimate. Assani had a very good feel for this bet based on his comments above.
Though I also think this guy is very above average, and 375 would be tough to get to for most players...
-Al
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