[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
why do u think they failed at hitting gandalf n1 when they didn't know me but then happened to get him n2 once they could roleblock me?

yes, could be coincidence, but only 50% likely

so if u believe me/herbie equally, then lynch herbie

if u believe him >2x more than me, then lynch me today and herbie tomorrow

[/ QUOTE ]
And of course Nich is the person to make this argument - that if Nich wasn't Aragorn then the wolves took a 50% shot at killing Gandalf over a 100% shot at killing Frodo or Sam. And while true this is not nearly the "proof" that Nich would like you to believe.

No kills have been blocked since Nich came out as Aragorn - Gollum was guaranteed to leave the game at some point since he had come out the day before so he wasn't going to get lynched or nightkilled. We are currently at 9-4 (an odd number of players). If the wolves kill had been blocked that night we would be at 10-4 right now (or some other configuration that involves 14 remaining players). When villages have an even number of players remaining they almost always choose no-lynch at some point to delay must lynch a day especially when there are not likely to be any confirmed villagers at must-lynch (which - given the events of the first few days definitely seemed like it would be the case here).

So it wasn't like the wolves were taking a 50% shot at MISSING a nightkill - they were taking a 50% shot at DELAYING a nightkill until later in the game. Getting their kill blocked that night would not have resulted in wolves needing an additional mislynch to win - it would have only resulted in the wolves passing on seer hunting for one night (which is much more plausible given that two of the three were already outed).

The only remaining issue is that if the kill had failed Nich would have been under even more pressure than he was the day before. The point against this is that there are many people here (myself included) who do not generally believe in lynching claimed power roles until there is a counterclaim. So basically when the wolves decided to kill Aaron that night they were weighing two scenarios

Scenario 1 - The kill is blocked, Nich gets lynched the next day and the real Aragorn likely counterclaims or strongly hints at his identity through his actions in getting Nich lynched

Scenario 2 - the kill goes through and Nich has a powerful mathematical argument to bolster an otherwise very weak roleclaim probably giving them an extra lynch at some point when the real Aragorn counterclaims (assuming they don't kill him at night first)

Anyone who knows Nich's wolf game knows that his entire goal is to do one thing that "clears" him. In this case he chose the Aaron kill because he felt that the potential downside was minimal and the upside was likely an extra mislynch when the real Aragorn counterclaimed him. It is the exact same idea behind him voting for IY the last day of Lunar Legend after FCBL voted for him - he would NEVER do that as a wolf because it would be so stupid that he HAS to be a villager.