Re: Hellmuth\'s insurance ideology
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One of the revelations of HSP this year is how poor Phil (and the other top pros) is at calculating hand odds. I guess getting insurance against bad beats is yet another of many ways that he "dodges bullets," in his mind.
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Didnt he mess up the K9 vs K7 hand? He gave Eli 8 outs, 9s and Js? But since Eli has a 9 there were only 7. He was trying to give 10% juice and ended up giving an extra 12.5%. I bet BA realized and didnt correct him.
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Phil said it was 36 wins and 8 losses but since the chop outs didn't count it was actually 30 wins 8 losses which is 3.75:1 which he played off as 4.5:1 so him taking 4:1 was +EV deal.
The only problem is it wasn't actually 36 wins 8 losses because eli only had 7 outs so it was 37-7 and if you take the 6 chop outs out it was 31-7 which is 4.42:1 so phil actually did lose on this but if he could count outs he would have been +EV in this.
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