[Marnixvdb]

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guys, the river action is simple.

No one in their right mind check-calls the turn with a hand that beats ours on this board. Theres just no chance.

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It's that line of thinking that allows players like Josh Arieh to call pre-flop raises with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and bust players when he hits his flush.

Once you start assuming that someone just in no way could play a hand in "x" fashion, you are hurting your own game. You say that no player in their right mind would play it that way? Do you realize how terrible some of the players are out there?

They don't think like you and I, they don't worry about pot odds, they don't realize they shouldn't try to check-raise three streets in a row, etc. Many bad players would hit their flush on the river and check, hoping to check-raise.

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old bump because this one is mentioned in the best of thread in HSNL

Your argument works both ways. Villain is thinking: No way Strasse shoves legit hands: he'll 3bet sets on flop, he'll check behind decent pair and two pair hands, valuebet flushes (and will likely check draw on turn), so most of the time is he full of [censored]. I call with my pair!

You distort his most likely line of thought with your two pair shove. It takes much more info for him to get tricky with a flush here and check to induce a shove - he is much more likely to go for direct value and lead his flush. I see it, but very rarely - and even then it's usually with flopped monsters played donkeystyle. Board texture makes it less likely though, i'd expect a riverlead, turn weak lead, or another turn check/raise if our opponent thinks donkeystyle and actually has two piar beat here. I would be interested to hear what - if any - bets Strasse would have called with his hand had opponent lead the river.

It's all about on which level you assume your opponent is thinking. And I don't think he is such a donk even though he butchered this hand. After his odd check/raise he shouldve bet turn for sure, even though that would mostly be to take it down / hope for a call and check through on river vs most hands.

So my argument is: you need additional info on opponent to assess if he is capable of checking his flush on the river, not to assess he almost never has a flush because he checks the river. The latter is most common (even though this can change with metagame) so it's a pretty safe assumption.