[Gonso]

You're going to make a set about 1 in 8.5 times (or 7.5 to 1). If you estimate that your hand will need to flop a set to win, you will need to 'average' a return of 7.5 to 1 just to break even long term, and obviously you want more than that since you're not playing to break even.

Say you have 44, raise, and get 3-bet. If you're considering calling for set value alone, check the effective stack sizes. If your bet was $7, and he made it $20 and has $50 left, you can't win enough to play your hand exclusively for set value. The pot and his stack combined is only $77, and you have to put in $13 more to call. 77 to 13 is about 6 to 1, not nearly the 7.5 to 1 you need just ot break even.

Worse, this is under the assumption that if you make your set he'll go broke. In practice this is very unrealistic, so you will need much more than a 7.5 to 1 return to make up for all the times you hit your set and they just fold.

In general, I like at least the possibility of winning about 15-to-1 on whatever I'd have to put in (very roughly). Against deep stacks this usually is possible, and I don't need that much against someone who I think will go broke with an overpair easily.

This also assumes that you don't think it's realistic that you can't win the pot with an unimproved small pair. Obviously if you can take the pot away from a player without a hand, it's easier to play 44.