[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem is, just calling cards "scare cards" when youve done nothing to define your opponents hand is not.. winning poker, i guess.

i mean, he could have KQ offsuit here. he could have anything. having checked through the flop, why would any particular card be a "scare card?" maybe a 2 makes him a set. are we scared of a 2

[/ QUOTE ]

You're totally right. I played with a couple different range of hands to get at what would be a scare card. I did some math as to what his pot equity would be, odds given his range, etc.

Here was my basic thought. The only hands I don't like giving free cards to are pocket pairs that would fold before the flop, these include pocket 22,33,44. And I don't want to give a free card to TT-AA who I could value bet. Although I think QQ-AA are less likely given the preflop action. Pocket 66, 88 I wouldn't want to give free cards to either with 6 outs to us.

Hands I don't mind giving a free card to are.
8-9 outs: any flush draw, 67, 56, 46, 8T, 78, 89,
we're behind: 8hTh, 6h4h, 5h6h, 86, 77, 55, 99

Although we don't have a read on the Villian, I'm inclined to put him on medium pocket pairs or medium suited conectors. In other words, hands I don't mind giving a free card.

But what really surprised me is kinda what you hinted at, any card could be a scare card. And since this is the case, the villian can feel free to play at me the rest of the hand. And I won't know where I'm at. So I'd rather keep the pot small and let him do the betting for me.

The biggest problem about giving a free card in the line that I provided is that you give an opponent who called with a small pair (such as pocket deuces) a free card to hit a set, who would have otherwise folded to a flop bet. However, any other hand that you're opponent would reasonably play, would have at the minimum 8-9 outs, except for over cards such as TT-AA (but I think QQ-AA are less likely. But maybe not). I think giving a free card to a two outter is worth the risk if that same two outter will bet into you on the turn even if he misses.

Gotta run. But I'll try and put some numbers together tomorrow. I'm not sure the numbers I have are correct or I would have originally posted them. I work on a mac and can't use Pokerstove on this computer. Feel free to flame away. I'm not sure if it's correct, but I think there could be something to it.