[rzk]

we need him to fold to a bet roughly 20% of the time to make a turn donk better than c/c. i'd venture a guess that he folds around 25% of the time in this spot. so choosing between b/c and c/c, i'd go with b/c. but i don't know which is better, b/c or c/r. the c/r is more credible, but two conditions are required for it to work:

1. he needs to bet if we check
2. he must not have a made hand, so that he's willing to fold on the turn or river

it's pretty hard for me to evaluate the probability of these events and so i have no idea how the EV compares with the b/c line.

EDIT: actually, i doubt he folds to a c/r more often than to a donk. if that's true, the donk is clearly better as we invest less in our semi-bluff.