[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Clark I don't think you really understand the probability behind what your doing (not that I'm an expert on this either, NFL futures isn't my thing), but this line of thinking will lead you to many profitable bets. An example that I dicussed with my colored friend, trixtrix, (who may stab me for sharing this) was of betting Indy +6 and the ML on NE at -185 or so. This is a very profitable middle opp and obv one that would have hit.

You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

Daliman's reason for not liking this bet are pretty poor.

[/ QUOTE ]
At what point did I say I do not like this bet?

I would, however, like to apologize for misinterpreting the initial post, thinking he was looking at taking the -200 and the -15.5. Sorry about that, no wonder you seemed so out-of-it; because I was.
Dang newborn eating into my sleep...... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

FWIW now that I am looking at it properly, I think the bet may have some good merit to it.