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  #36  
Old 12-02-2007, 12:46 AM
kimchi kimchi is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: FU minbet
Posts: 1,246
Default Re: A TRADABLE CONCEPT?

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I am using www.stockfetcher.com

The data is only EOD and is $16.95 per month (I got the advanced subscription). You can test 2 year periods over from 2002-2007.

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Looks like a useful tool. You might also want to try www.prorealtime.com it's a free charting/screener/backtesting platform with EOD data. I've been using this mostly to try some backtesting ideas, but I haven't worked out how to program in proper exits and money management yet. Also, my regular platform is LSE only. I'll have a look at stockfetcher.com too.


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Longs: 58% winning rate (average return 0.90% over 5 days not including transaction costs)

Shorts: 51% success rate (average return 0.19% over 5 days) NOTE for clarification: Stock price averages a -0.19% dip over next 5 days.

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I wouldn't spend too much time worrying about success rate. This stat is only really useful when calculating the EV of your system. After all, no winning poker player wins more hands than they lose, yet can be +EV. Obviously a system with a higher success rate might be psychologically easier to trade - a very important point.

I think your main job should be to try to make low risk, high reward trades and worry less about your success rate. Being right about a trade is very different from trading right, imo.
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