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Old 11-18-2007, 06:43 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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Default Re: NCAAF Rank\' Em (approaching Week 13)

I think they deserve the #2 spot now. They have played a fairly weak schedule, but most of the tougher games have been on the road and they've outscored the teams that they did face by a pretty good margin. Sagarin predictor which ignores wins and losses altogether had them #3 going into this week and that should be at least #2 this week after Oregon's poor performance.

Also, there really aren't a lot of contenders to put above them. Oklahoma and Oregon both have two losses and injured QBs. I'd expect Kansas to hammer either of those teams right now unless Bradford gets healthy in a hurry. Arizona State and Ohio State have played schedules almost as weak as Kansas as between the two of them, they have a combined record of 0-2 against teams I'd rank in the Top 25.

That leaves West Virginia and Missouri. WVU's played a little better competition than OSU or ASU as the Big East is underrated and winning at Cincinnatti is a legitimate accomplishment. The difference in competition hasn't been quite enough for me to overlook the loss to USF where West Virginia was dominated most of the game and trailed 21-3 in the 3rd before the Bulls went into shut-down mode. Don't get me wrong, West Virginia's a very, very good team and they're probably slightly better than Kansas in terms of pure talent, but I think KU's done a little more to earn a ranking.

Kansas and Missouri is the closest of all. Mizzou got a big quality win over Illinois to open the season and has outscored Kansas against 3 out of 5 common opponents with another (Nebraska) being a virtual push. I do expect them to beat the Jayhawks about 55% of the time.

However, the loss to Oklahoma can't just be written off now that we've seen the Sooners look vulnerable for a second time. Also, Kansas State was playing much better back in early October than they are now and the Jayhawks should be given a little extra credit there. Basically, KU and Mizzou are so close that I think it's only fair to give the benefit of the doubt to the unbeaten squad. LSU's schedule on the other hand, has been miles tougher than Kansas's (no pun intended), so it's only fair that they get the #1 spot for now.
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