[ALawPoker]

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perhaps 15% of fund managers beat the market, and they are rarely ever the same funds from year to year.

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This is such an important thing to understand.

If more people knew this and took 5 seconds to ponder the ramifications of it, I think you'd see a lot of mutual fund managers out of work.

EDIT: Please take the effort to realize this does NOT imply there could be a >50% chance you can pick one of the "winning" mutual funds if you make good selections. It implies that there is a ~15% chance you will be better off with a mutual fund. Or in other words, a ~100% chance you made the wrong decision.