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Old 10-16-2007, 03:03 PM
DMoogle DMoogle is offline
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Default Re: TP+NFD in RRed pot 160BBs deep

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Given read that villain is "passive" and "straightforward", shouldn't river be a fold?

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Not passive and straightforward, but just a bit more so than most TAGs at this level. In other words, kind of on the nittier side of TAG. Does not mean at all he's incapable of bluffing. I'm pretty sure his range is nearly always A8, A5, and a ton of missed FDs.

If I bet the turn, I'm very comfortable getting it in vs. a CR, because I think he'd have a draw a very large percentage of the time. I think he'd nearly ALWAYS RR AA and QQ preflop, 33 he's definitely raising the flop (same with two pair). A8 is the only hand I could be worried about on the turn.

The reason I didn't bet the turn is because that would, I believe, represent very large strength and he may fold a lower flush draw because of poor odds. Although if he hit the 8 with a FD then I think there's a stronger chance he would CR AI. Also checking behind on the turn may induce a bluff on the river (although I think bluffing the river in this spot is bad).
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