Re: 400nl deep bluff
lets say his range is QQ/AJ/JTs/TT-88 (reasonable imo), and assume he folds QQ 60% and Jx 40%. lets compare call vs. shove.
36 combos of TT-88, 24 combos of QQ/AJ/JTs so:
Call EV: +$510 x 60% + -$170 x 40% = +$238
Shove EV: +$510 x (60% + (20% x 60%) + (20% x 40%)) + (-$548.10 x (20% x 40% + 20% x 60%) = +$298.38
dunno what a realistic fold % would be but if we assume he folds QQ and Jx w/ the same frequency, he needs to fold about 35.7% of the time to make it as much EV as calling.
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