[Post-Oak]

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so essentially to derive the the edge you obtain from -241 nfl leg (i don't know where you got the 73% from, likely from the same hole you obtain all your other ideas), you're willing to parlay it w/ another -241 leg that you KNOW is -ev?


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-241 NFL leg? What in the world are you talking about? You don't even know what a Basic Strategy Teaser is, do you?

I figure you are talking about a -241 ML because a 2 team teaser with an even money payout is break even if both legs are 70.7% to win (or -241 ML as you so un-elegantly put it). But what does "-241 ML" have to do with the NFL leg? I already said that we are assuming that the NFL leg has a 73+% chance to win.

As for where the 73% chance to win comes from, look into Basic Strategy Teasers.

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so why stop there? why not just tease the nfl and ncaa fav -6.5, and then hedge back ncaa dog on the ml for +230?


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Where do you see a +230 ML??? In the example I gave, the moneyline for Army is +225/-265. This puts Army's actual chance of winning as -245 (71%), if we assume that the moneyline is efficient (an important assumption for our thought experiment, although it could be wrong).

So first of all, the NCAAF leg of the teaser is not -EV. It is slightly positive EV. Second of all, why would we want to hedge at +225 when the fair line would be +245? You lost me.

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next time i see a fighter that has true odds of -275 that has a sticker-price of -241, i'll parlay him w/ another -241 priced fighter that has only a -200 chance of winning..


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LOL.

Do you not even understand that there is no such thing as a one team teaser? And where do you see me adding a -EV leg to the teaser???

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and afterwards i too can start a thread proclaiming my genius..


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I never proclaimed my genius. Why are you going crazy over this? I spent about 30 mintues thinking about this, and then made a post. I was thinking about how to get around 5Dimes anti-teaser line tinkering, as well as their $500 max bet, and I came up with this.

I posted this for FEEDBACK. I wanted to know if anyone sees a problem with this, or has anything constructive to add.

Maybe the moneylines are not efficient?

I also wanted to raise the idea that NCAA teasers are not as awful as some people have been indicating.

I never said that this was groundbreaking, or that it was the be-all, end-all of teasers. I am not even saying that the -6.5 lines are the best to add as the second leg. There could be other non-BST NFL legs that would be better to add, or other NCAAF lines that would be better.

I only chose -6.5 because it is possible to mathematically prove, that if the moneylines are efficient, it is +EV to tease in this way.

Calm the [censored] down.