[humdinger]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm... This post is v v good, not in that he gives away much EV, but it opens up the entire idea. This is an example of how you actually make money in sports betting. Std outside the box thinking into essentially how to circumvent limits by taking a coinflip situation in addition to a +EV one.


[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.

I've made money for years betting correlated parlays in college football. Sadly, most of my spots have dried up now. I have one spot still available, but with small limits, and I can't do a strict parlay on the game (or half).

For example, last week, in the first half, LSU was favored by 24 with a total of 27 (or was it 21 with a total of 24?) vs. Tulane. Let's pretend the total is a true coinflip. Now, if the game goes under 27, I feel dang confident that LSU will not cover.

So, I want to parlay Tulane +24 with the under 27. This is a simple concept.

However, I have very small limits where I can do this.

But...if I also throw in another bet on the parlay, I can increase my exposure. So, now I make a threeteam parlay...Tulane, Under, and the money line bet on a some obscene favorite in CFB. In all honesty, is -1000 moneyline bet on a favorite a +EV bet? Likely not. But it was definitely worth it to be able to bet more on the Tulane/Under parlay.

At least, that's what I think Thremp is saying.

Good luck, all.

hd