Re: Current State of Loans
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I think from the latest numbers, the only area that's still going up is Seattle, possibly NYC. A few areas showed median price revisions going up, but if you dig into the numbers, they were skewed upward by a large number of cancellations in the low-end houses. Possibly because those buyers are usually marginal credit-wise anyway, and it's tougher for marginal people to get a loan.
Most areas are still headed down, and people like ceo's of a couple homebuilders are saying the bottom is a couple years out.
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Sure, maybe so, I wouldn't know because I don't really pay much attention to RE markets except for the ones that I invest in. I just heard a story on NPR about how many minor-metro areas such as Des Moines, IA, and a few other midwestern cities are showing normal appreciation. So maybe I'm wrong.
Look, in REI, the best move is to invest in the best deal, NOT the best market. It makes NO SENSE at all in REI to pass up a good deal now in the vague hope of making a better deal tomorrow. Passing up good deals is foolish and completely wrong-headed. Also, I'd argue that 2-3 years in REI is the short-term anyway. So buying and taking a small short-term loss in equity while knowing that the market will shortly recover and probably show a better than average return later on is the RIGHT thing to do. But in any case, we really don't know what will happen to the housing market over next year or 2 years from now anyway. And that is why taking the good deal now is the correct thing to do.
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