Re: 8/16 Live Thin Value Raises
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The OP has described the villain here as passive. He calls two cold PF and then caps the flop. not something I think a passive would do with two pair on a board containing two spades. I think it is the villain, and not OP, who is value betting the turn and the river here. How do we not believe that a passive villain has a set once he goes berzerk on the flop?
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1) Particularly live, I see people repeatedly OVERvaluing their opponents cards. 2) Sets remain relatively rare compared to flush draws that "accidentally" spike two pairs. Yes, the capped flop is a BIG concern. But I think the odds favor 2 pairs that just got counterfeited versus the set when it comes to betting on the river. If your read says set, then just call. If the OP says he read "SET," I'd just call. But reading sets live, how often are we wrong?
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