Seems like people are wondering whether the Absolute Poker Badbeat Jackpot (APBBJ) tables are worth playing given that extra rake is taken from them. I haven't seen anybody attempt to find the odds of hitting it. Being a bit of a math geek I felt the need to investigate. Using data from
http://wizardofodds.com/holdem/badbeat.html
I believe the probability of a hand hitting the AP BBJ (8888 or better getting beat) is 0.00000519 per single hand which is expected to be 1 per 192,678 dealt hands. Some payout goes to everyone dealt at the table whether they are in the final hand or not. So if you are at a table 6 players per table you would be expected to share in the BBJ prize once every 32,113 hands. With 9 players at a table, it would be every 21,409 hands. So for frequent players the chances of getting something back from the BBJ rake are not infinitesimal. In fact, one site reported that when the BBJ prize is greater than $315,000 or so it is net profitable. At the time of this posting, Currenly the prize is at $345,00 and rising. BTW, I don't care if anyone wants or doesn't want to play there. I'm just trying to get the facts.