[bozlax]

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all of the hands against which you c/r the flop.

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Not true since we are b/f. If he bluff raise it's a disaster for us. I am not a big fan of the flop CR (since UTG should fold the same hands for one and two bets), but it's reasonable if villain can hold JJ-TT since we force out UTG (if he is somewhat loose). But the value of leading vs those hands on the turn is not clear if he bluffraises sometimes, or if he folds them.

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Why do you think he's going to bluffraise? Because he bet when we checked to him?

You quoted some conventional wisdom regarding aggression factors; here's some more:

"They aren't bluffing you anywhere near as much as you think they are."

I would actually call it far more likely that he'd call down with AK, fearing we'd fold to a raise, than bluff raise.