[sence25]

I'm also in the cb flop camp, as I think this is the best play by far.
Everything I wrote in this thread is regarding how the hand has been played, obviously after we bet the flop.

Now, after we bet and get raised, you might make a point for just calling because we don't get a fold for a shove often enough.
Let's figure out what he would be raising and fold to a shove.
Random pairs like 66? Some rag T? J9? Prolly that's about it.
He also could just raise for bluff reasons, putting us on overs.

Obviously he isn't often folding if he hit a "good" toppair, like with QJ, KJ, AJ.
JT is also a possibility and never folding to a push.
Also he could hold a set, 33 & TT seem somehow likely, I doubt anyone just flats JJ against a button raise.
Sets will never fold, even if we hit our straight outs, which makes an argument for just an oddscall.

The problem with the hand is that if we just call and he's on a random J, we don't give him the chance to fold(our line looks very strong, raise pf, 3 bet AI flop - he might fold a ragged J or a T, tho I doubt he has a T often here).
And he has to have a J or something less strong pretty often here, just because sets and twopairs are much less likely.

It just feels like if we call, we have to keep the pot small when we hit our six overcard-outs, because we just called because we thought those overs are no good very often.
Now if they are good we don't get much more value because a J won't want to play for stacks(unless he just made 2p) and a weaker hand than a J might even c/f if we hit on the turn.

So of our undiscounted outs 10/14 are overs to the board, and might kill our action, that's why I advocated a shove, thinking we get about ~45% eq against a random J(which is his most likely holding), making this an ok play with already this many chips in the pot.
Obviously for a valid hand analysis we would have to calculate our equity against his range and also count in the cases he raise/folds.
But I don't have time for this right now.

Well, I talked to finnisher a bit about this hand, and he did some math stuff(always good to know scandinavians).
We came to the conclusion that shoving~calling > folding, while shoving is prolly causing huge variance.


Also, OP, pls check behind in the future, allowing me to learn more for my uni tests.