[PNBkid]

Burns NBA

UNDER magic/sonics (209 or better)

Game: Orlando Magic vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 11/28/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Sonics and Magic to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Sonics to finish below yesterday's big number and I feel that tonight's total is too high once again. Note that the Sonics have already seen the UNDER go 3-0 this season when playing a home game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. The Magic, who have seen their road games average 198 points per game, rarely see over/under lines this high. In fact, this is the highest total they have seen all season. Looking back to past seasons and we find the UNDER at a profitable 17-11 the last 28 times that the Magic played a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. Note that the line was 209 when these teams met at Orlando two weeks ago and they combined for a mere 179 points. That brought the UNDER to a perfect 4-0 the last four series meetings. Those four games averaged just 180.75 points. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight series meetings. Additionally, dating back to last season, the Sonics have seen the UNDER go 10-2 the last 12 times that they played the second of back to back games, including a 3-1 mark so far this season. The last time that the Sonics played the second of back to back games, they managed just 84 points in a 100-84 loss at Charlotte. That game stayed below the total by 15+ points. The last time that they played a home game, after having played the previous night, the Sonics and Grizzlies combined for 203 points, in game that also stayed below the number by 15 points. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. *Blue Chip

PORTLAND (-6 or better)

Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers Game Time: 11/28/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers Reason: I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. I feel that the situation strongly favors the home team. While the Blazers had last night off, the Pacers come off a hard-fought 112-110 win in the high altitude of Denver. While the Pacers did win at New Orleans last week, when playing the second of back to back games, they are still a money-burning 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 times in that situation. This is worse than a typical back to back situation though as the Pacers are also playing their sixth game in the past nine nights. That's a gruelling nine-day stretch for any team and arguably more so for a team that likes to run up and down the floor as much as this year's Pacers squad. Note that even with last night's win, the Pacers are still just 5-15 their last 20 road games. After having consecutive nights off, the Blazers came up short vs. a solid Orlando club on Monday. Despite that loss, they're still a healthy 5-2 at home for the season. Look for the Blazers, 17-8 the last 25 times they played a home game with an over/under line in the 200 to 204.5 range, to have the much fresher legs tonight and for that to result in a convincing win and cover. *Personal Favorite