Re: how bad is this?
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only straight possible is mp2 holding T8 which is "discountable" imo. most likely you're against a set and overpair or two sets.
in that case you're almost breaking even on the money going in on the turn. 3-betting the turn is obviously not good, though.
pokenum -h ah 8h - 9c 9d - 7d 7h -- 2h 9h 7c 6s
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 6s 7c 9h 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah 8h 13 30.95 29 69.05 0 0.00 0.310
9c 9d 28 66.67 14 33.33 0 0.00 0.667
7d 7h 1 2.38 41 97.62 0 0.00 0.024
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I agree that it's pretty unlikely we're against a straight. If we do 3-bet the turn, it would be bad if UTG was planning on simply calling MP's raise since there was no need to put that bet in. Although, since we're not that far off of 33% equity, we don't lose that much by betting. In that case, do you think it's worth it for deception miles? I mean, OP played this hand exactly like a flush draw and if he does hit the flush on the river that doesn't pair the board, it's likely to freeze people up. However, if we 3-bet to make it look like a slowplay, do you think there is any value in that since it would be harder for them to put us on the flush draw, possibly letting us collect another round of bets on the river from someone with 99?
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