[DesertCat]

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The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

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He's 22 in 2008.

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He's been the same hitter for two years. Why didn't he improve this year? He was a year older this year than last? He has had the physical gifts of a player in his mid-twenties since he was twenty years old, he doesn't need to grow any more. He needs to learn how to make adjustments, i.e. hit at a major league level.

I'm not saying he won't figure it out. But usually great players don't take three years to do it. So you have to put his upside more on the level of a good, not great, player.

Manny Ramirez had an OPS of .997 in AA and 1.114 in AAA as a 21 year old.

Albert Pujols had a 1.000 OPS in the MAJORS at age 21.

Miquel Cabrera had an OPS of .878 in the MLB at age 21 in a full season in a tougher hitting park and league (130 OPS+).

At age 22, JD Drew's OPS was 1.021 split between AA and AAA.

Delmon Young hasn't sniffed these numbers at any serious level of competition. His "tools" haven't translated into "production".

Justin Upton had a .960 OPS split between A and AA at age 19. His MLB stats for his age 19 year aren't much worse than Delmon Youngs age 21 year. Justin is a stud prospect because he's improved tremendously in just one year while being forced up three rungs of competition. Delmon is an uncertain prospect because he's not improving.

You mentioned that PECOTA thinks Delmon Young will increase his OPS 28 pts, to .742 at age 22, which would still leave him one of the worst hitting corner outfielders in the MLB. If he has a season like that it will count as three years of the same lousy results, and won't give a lot of hope he'll ever be much more than an fourth outfielder or run of the mill starter.