[kidcolin]

I think your thought process is OK, it's just you need to think about how the change in rebound opportunities vs. the effect pace has.

Take the current game, with ~80 FGs per game. With a FG% of 45%, that leaves 44 opportunities for a rebound. (I'm guessing the reason there are only 41 RPG is blocks and balls out of bounds). If they shot 48% instead, that's only 2.5 less rebound opportunities. Not enough to swing your top rebound guy from 12 per game to 14 or 15.

But if you're chucking 100 shots instead, then blammo. You've got a ton of opportunities, regardless of whether you shoot 40% or 50%.

Probably more importantly, I've thus far ignored that the big reason FG% is down is the love affair with the 3pter, so looking just at FG% with respect to scoring is flawed.