Thread: 3 6 top set and gutshot, looks like i have too many outs to fold
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Old 05-18-2007, 02:43 AM
Silent A Silent A is offline
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Default Re: 3 6 top set and gutshot, looks like i have too many outs to fold
[ QUOTE ]
SA what would it take to modify your calculations if villain is ALWAYS folding board-pairing turn and thus the only question is whether or not he folds a heart?

I think what will happen is that we need him to fold a heart nearly all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just change the 2nd EV calc to (approx) ...

EV = (7/45)*(688) + (38/45)*(0.29*2432 - 1044) = -$179

and ...

26f > 179(1-f)
f > 179/205
f > 0.87
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